I have structed this as a two-part post, where the second part is about one of the two winners of this year’s Nobel prize for economics. Both parts are directly connected, but I’ve split them because the second part is more of interest to those who know some economics. The Decline of Knowledge Based Policy I have written about this before, prompted by a post from Chris Dillow, who has returned to the theme more recently. Rereading all this I think we have a classic problem of overdetermination, by which I mean that we only have one observation - the...