September marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season[^1], when tropical cyclone activity is at its highest. For people like myself, living in the Caribbean means being on a constant lookout for tropical weather. Even the weakest tropical wave could mean days of power loss, which for me means days of not being able to work, and if we get a repetition of Hurricane Maria, it could mean months without electricity and losing my job. Not-so-fun fact: Puerto Rico has the record for the longest blackout in US history: 11 months. Almost a decade later, I still worry I’ll lose power when it rains, and occasionally, I do.[^2] Being on the lookout has turned me into something of a Weather Nerd. For that, I have various resources. The first one is WeatherNerds.org. While the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Tropical Weather Outlook identifies disturbances that could develop into tropical cyclones within the next seven days, WeatherNerds lets you look directly at weather-model and tropical-cyclone forecast guidance, which can sometimes hint at potential development before a disturbance appears on the NHC outlook. This comes with the tradeoff that sometimes a disturbance comes up that doesn’t end up going anywhere, but it otherwise gives me a few extra days to keep an eye on something. That little bit of extra warning can be useful. By the time a system becomes a serious topic on the NHC outlook and local news, people start paying attention. If we happen to be short on hurricane supplies, I'd rather restock before everyone else has the same idea—and before stores are packed or shelves start emptying. A few other resources I check are Mike’s Weather Page and Tropical Tidbits. Most of the disturbances I keep an eye on never amount to anything, and many of the ones that do develop eventually steer clear of Puerto Rico. But still, I’m the kind of person who checks WeatherNerds, the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, and the other sites I mentioned almost daily. I feel like Hurricanes Irma and Maria caught many people by surprise. I was certainly surprised by how quickly they intensified and how powerful they became. Because of that experience, I try to avoid being caught by surprise again. On the flip side, there are people that sound like alarmists. The moment the NHC starts reporting on any disturbance, they claim it’s coming straight for us and that life as we know it is going to end. I ignore those people and go straight to the source and make my decisions based on factual information. I am by no means a meteorologist, and once the NHC starts reporting on a system, especially if it’s coming for Puerto Rico, I stick to the NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook. But until then, I like my early-warning system. [^1]: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#bac [^2]: https://www.gao.gov/blog/el-apagon-blackout.-puerto-ricos-continuing-struggle-stable-electricity